GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
October 29, 2026 We expect a 2.8% GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year which would give us 2.7% growth for the year as a whole. We expect 2.4% GDP growth in 2027. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.1% at...
GDP
October 29, 2026 The advance estimate of third quarter GDP growth was 3.4% which compares to 2.2% growth in the first quarter. .The economy is showing no sign of slowing down. Final sales is GDP less the change in nonfarm business inventories. Final sales climbed...
Final Sales
October 29, 2026 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to...
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
October 29, 2026 It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas -- our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries -- our imports. In the...
Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator
October 29, 2026 There are many different deflators that are available. This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents. It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP...
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly
October 29, 2026 Personal income rose 0.2% in August after gaining 0.3% in July. In the past year personal income has climbed 4.0%. The growth in income is being fueled by wages which rose 0.3% in both July and August.. In the past year wages have risen 4.2%....
Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator
October 29, 2026 There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components....
Initial Unemployment Claims
October 29, 2026 Initial unemployment claims declined 1 thousand in the week ending October 24 to 194 thousand after having fallen 5 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits declined 21 thousand in the week ending October...
New Home Sales
October 27, 2026 New home sales fell 0.6^ in September to 676 thousand after having risen 5.1% in August. In the past year new home sales have declined 5.3%. While volatile on a month-to-month basis, it is clear that new home sales continue their slump. Mortgage...
Consumer Confidence
October 27, 2026 . The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose 7.5 points in October to 91.7 after declining 4.4 points in September. While confidence rose in September, it climbed from the lowest level since May 2014. Senior Economist at the...
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