Inflation Poised to Slow — Fed on the Sidelines
October 2, 2026 The string of positive economic indicators continued this week as GDP growth for the first half of the year was revised upwards and third quarter growth seems likely to be even more robust. Is the Fed is supposed to worry about growth that is...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
October 2, 2026 We expect a 3.5% GDP growth rate in the third quarter of this year which would give us 2.6% growth for the year as a whole. We expect 2.6% GDP growth in 2027. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.1% at the...
Payroll Employment
October 2, 2026 . .Payroll employment rose by 29 thousand in September after climbing by 133 thousand in August. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 51 thousand per month .The labor market seems to be improving slowly but...
Private Employment
October 2, 2026 . Private sector employment rose by 46 thousand in September after climbing by 89 thousand in August. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on average by 54 thousand per month .The labor market seems to be improving slowly...
Unemployment Rate
October 2, 2026 OK The unemployment rate rose 0.1% in September to 4.2% after having been unchanged in August. The labor force jumped by 485 thousand in September while employment rose by 406 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers rose by 78...
Nonfarm Workweek
October 2, 2026 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment rose by 29 thousand in September. At the same time the nonfarm workweek was...
Average Hourly Earnings
October 2, 2026 Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September to $37.81 after climbing by 0.3% in August Earnings growth in the past year has been 3.0%. While nominal earnings have risen 3.0% in the past year, inflation has risen by 3.3% so real or...
Average Duration of Unemployment
October 2, 2025 The average duration of unemployment fell 1.5 weeks in September to 24.8 weeks after having risen 1.4 weeks in August . That works out to an average duration of unemployment of six months. It appears that unemployed workers are having a somewhat...
Construction Spending
October 1, 2026 Construction spending (the green bars above) rose 0.9% in August after having fallen 0.1% in July. In the past 12 months it has declined 1.7% Private construction spending (excluding the government sector) rose 1.1% in August after having declined...
Purchasing Managers Index
October 1, 2026 The Institute for Supply Management’s index of conditions in the manufacturing sector fell 0.1 point in September to 54.5 after having fallen 1.0 point in August. This is the 9th straight month that the manufacturing sector has been expanding...
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