Growth Accelerating, Not Overheating
September 25, 2026 The economic data in recent weeks have been surprisingly strong and many market participants fear that the economy is overheating and the Fed will need to push rates sharply higher to slow it down. But not so fast. Thanks to a pickup in...
Durable Goods Orders
September 25, 2026 Durable goods orders were unchanged in August after having risen 0.9% in July. Durable goods orders have risen 8.5% in the past year. Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector -- airplanes, cars, and trucks. In...
New Home Sales
September 24, 2026 New home sales rose 6.4% in August to 684 thousand after falling 4.3% in July. In the past year new home sales have declined 2.0%. While volatile on a month-to-month basis, it is clear that new home sales continue their slump. Mortgage rates...
Initial Unemployment Claims
September 24, 2026 Initial unemployment claims fell 1 thousand in the week ending September 10 to 197 thousand after having declined 9 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose 2 thousand in the week ending September...
We Do Not Need “Forward Guidance”
September 18, 2026 The Fed raised the funds rate by 0.25% at the FOMC meeting this week to 3.75-4.0%. It was almost inconceivable that they could do otherwise. The only” forward guidance” that market participants needed was a clear indication from Fed Chair Warsh...
Industrial Production
September 17, 2026 Industrial production was unchanged in August after having risen 0.2% in July.. In the past year industrial production has risen 1.4%. Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories -- manufacturing, mining, and utilities ...
Housing Starts
September 17, 2026 Housing starts declined 2.6% in August to 1,275 thousand after having fallen 9.0% in July. Starts are very volatile from month to month, but they clearly remain at roughly the same very low level where they have been since the beginning of the...
Homebuilder Confidence
September 16, 2026 Homebuilder confidence fell 3 points in September to 32 after rising 1 point in August. Builders are still worried about the rising cost of materials, high mortgage rates, and affordability. The breakeven point for this series is 50 so at 32 it...
Retail Sales
September 16, 2026 Retail sales jumped 1.2% in August after having declined 0.5% in July. In the past year retail sales have risen 5.8%. Consumers continue to spend despite the runup in inflation caused by the war with Iran. Motor vehicle sales climbed 0.6% in...
On The Way to a 2.0% Inflation Rate
September 11, 2026 The spike in oil prices this past week has created concern about a sharp pickup in the inflation rate and the possibility of a recession. We think the markets are overreacting but that is what markets always do. Going forward the economy is going...
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