On The Way to a 2.0% Inflation Rate
September 11, 2026 The spike in oil prices this past week has created concern about a sharp pickup in the inflation rate and the possibility of a recession. We think the markets are overreacting but that is what markets always do. Going forward the economy is going...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
September 11, 2026 We expect a 3.5% GDP growth rate in the third quarter of this year which would give us 2.4% growth for the year as a whole. We expect 2.8% GDP growth in 2027. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.1% at...
Consumer Sentiment
September 11, 2026 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment fell 3.9 points in September to 47.8 after declining 3.5 points in July. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, "Consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive...
Consumer Price Index
September 11, 2026 The CPI rose 0.4% in August after having gained 0.1% in July. The year-over-year increase is now 3.4%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 3.3% in 2026 versus 2.7% in 2025 as the war with Iran has boosted oil prices. Loo0king ahead we...
Existing Home Sales
September 10, 2026 . Existing home sales declined 2.0% in August to 3,980 thousand after having declined 1.7% July. .Home sales have been floundering at about this same pace for the past two years. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said that. urn near 6%.”Mortgage...
Producer Price Index
September 10, 2026 . The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose...
Initial Unemployment Claims
September 10, 2026 Initial unemployment claims fell 1 thousand in the week ending September 5 to 206 thousand after having risen 3 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell 1 thousand in the week ending August 29 to...
Employment Surges – Fed Poised to Raise Rates
September 4, 2026 If there was any doubt previously, the employment report appears to have given the Fed a green light to raise rates at their next meeting on September 15-16. The 162 thousand increase in payroll employment for August was higher than the consensus...
Payroll Employment
September 4, 2026 . .Payroll employment jumped by 162 thousand in August after rising by 21 thousand in July. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 71 thousand per month .The labor market seems to be improving slowly but steadily....
Private Employment
September 4, 2026 . Private sector employment jumped by 127 thousand in August after rising by 71 thousand in July. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on average by 75 thousand per month .The labor market seems to be improving slowly...
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