Long Rates Have Risen Sharply. The New Normal?
August 12, 2026 There has been a lot of discussion about the recent increase in the yield on the 10-year note. It has climbed from 4.1% in February to 4.6% currently. Is it being driven by inflation fears? Or are supply issues by the U. S. Treasury combined with...
Consumer Price Index
August 12, 2026 The CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June The year-over-year increase is now 3.3%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 3.4% in 2026 versus 2.4% in 2025 as the war with Iran has boosted oil prices. Food prices rose 0.1% in July after...
Existing Home Sales
August 11, 2026 . Existing home sales declined 1.7% in July to 4,060 thousand after falling 1.4% in June. .Home sales have been floundering at about this same pace for the past two years. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said that. “Home sales have been...
Small Business Optimism
August 11, 2026 . Small business optimism rose 2.4 points in July to 99.8 after having risen 2.1 points in June to 97.4 after declining 0.6 point in May. The index level is just a shade below its 40-year average rate of 98.0 which is regarded as the breakeven...
Where Did All the Workers Go?
August 7, 2026 The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payroll employment declined 23 thousand in July. That was totally unexpected. At the same time the unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.1%. These somewhat surprising results came about because the...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
August 7, 2026 The economy expanded at a 1.5% pace in the second quarter and we expect a 3.5% growth rate in the third quarter of this year and 2.3% GDP growth for the year as a whole. Given the GDP forecast above, in 2026 we expect the unemployment rate to be...
Payroll Employment
August 7, 2026 . .Payroll employment declined by 23 thousand in July after rising by 20 thousand in June and 63 thousand in May. The May and June data were revised downwards sharply. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 20 thousand...
Private Employment
August 7, 2026 . .Private sector employment rose by 30 thousand in both June and July and 61 thousand in May. The May and June data were revised downwards sharply. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on average by 40 thousand per month ...
Unemployment Rate
August 7, 2026 OK The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in July to 4.1% after having declined 0.1% June to 4.2% after having been unchanged in May. The labor force fell by 264 thousand in July employment declined by 87 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed...
Nonfarm Workweek
August 7, 2026 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment declined by 23 thousand in July. At the same time the nonfarm workweek was...
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