Housing Starts
September 17, 2026 Housing starts declined 2.6% in August to 1,275 thousand after having fallen 9.0% in July. Starts are very volatile from month to month, but they clearly remain at roughly the same very low level where they have been since the beginning of the...
Initial Unemployment Claims
September 17, 2026 Initial unemployment claims fell 10 thousand in the week ending September 12 to 196 thousand after having declined 1 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell 39 thousand in the week ending September...
Homebuilder Confidence
September 16, 2026 Homebuilder confidence fell 3 points in September to 32 after rising 1 point in August. Builders are still worried about the rising cost of materials, high mortgage rates, and affordability. The breakeven point for this series is 50 so at 32 it...
Retail Sales
September 16, 2026 Retail sales jumped 1.2% in August after having declined 0.5% in July. In the past year retail sales have risen 5.8%. Consumers continue to spend despite the runup in inflation caused by the war with Iran. Motor vehicle sales climbed 0.6% in...
On The Way to a 2.0% Inflation Rate
September 11, 2026 The spike in oil prices this past week has created concern about a sharp pickup in the inflation rate and the possibility of a recession. We think the markets are overreacting but that is what markets always do. Going forward the economy is going...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
September 11, 2026 We expect a 3.5% GDP growth rate in the third quarter of this year which would give us 2.4% growth for the year as a whole. We expect 2.8% GDP growth in 2027. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.1% at...
Consumer Sentiment
September 11, 2026 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment fell 3.9 points in September to 47.8 after declining 3.5 points in July. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, "Consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive...
Consumer Price Index
September 11, 2026 The CPI rose 0.4% in August after having gained 0.1% in July. The year-over-year increase is now 3.4%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 3.3% in 2026 versus 2.7% in 2025 as the war with Iran has boosted oil prices. Loo0king ahead we...
Existing Home Sales
September 10, 2026 . Existing home sales declined 2.0% in August to 3,980 thousand after having declined 1.7% July. .Home sales have been floundering at about this same pace for the past two years. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said that. urn near 6%.”Mortgage...
Producer Price Index
September 10, 2026 . The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose...
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